Free Agency Questions - Who Should Return
The Falcons enter the offseason with 25 free agents, choosing who comes back will go a long way in defining the direction of both free agency and the draft
The Falcons enter the season facing another summer of turmoil and turnover. With almost half the roster entering free agency as well as a plethora of cap space there are expectations that the long awaited rebuild can finally begin in Atlanta. In the first part of our offseason previews we take a look at the crop of Falcons free agents and which players we should see back next season.
‘Bring them Back’
Kaleb McGary
Coming into the season McGarys’s fifth year option was declined by the team. Far from letting that stop him McGary not only put in a career best year but helped form one of the most devastating G/T duos in the league.
Perhaps more impressive than his dominant run blocking are the steps McGary has made in pass protection. While never a risk to be a lockdown technician of a tackle, McGary’s 19 pressures allowed this year are a clear personal best (41, 30, 49 his previous pressure totals) and would give hope that he has turned a corner and can at least provide league average pass protection.
However, unlike fellow tackle Jake Matthews, McGary’s reliance on his physical prowess would give you some cause for concern with just how well his game will age if you sign him to a contract which takes him into his 30’s.
Risks - Resigning McGary certainly comes with risks attached.
One season wonders always come with risks attached. Do we trust that McGary has continued on an upwards trend or is he simply another player who over performs during their contract season? If (as we are) you trust that McGary has continued to make strides every year of his career then the risk is considerably less.
Price will also become a factor for McGary - his agent will rightly argue that he performed as one of the best tackles in the league this season and thus deserves paying as such. PFF has McGary as the second highest graded run blocker at T behind only Trent Williams.
However, what may help limit McGary’s $ value as well as his free agent market is that his value is arguably the highest in Atlanta. Teams who don’t build around their run game will likely not covet a player such as McGary as his value is intrinsically linked to his usage in the run game.
Along with McGary’s value to the team and combination with Chris Lindstrom is the fact that the rest of the offensive line could be somewhat in flux. LG is still far from locked down while Jake Matthews is inching towards the finish line and could well be replaced as early as 2024. Centre also remains a question mark with neither Matt Hennessy or Drew Dalman convincing in their stints as starter.
Taking all the above into account, McGary’s continued upwards trend along with his combination with Chris Lindstrom it is a no-brainer to bring him back.
Predicted Contract: 4 years $66 million ($16.5 AAV)
Isaiah Oliver
Oliver is another player who despite struggling to start his career has used a position change to springboard his way back into the hearts and minds of Falcons fans. The move to slot cornerback has transformed Oliver and if it wasn’t for back to back truncated seasons due to injury he would likely be thought of as one of the premier nickel corners in the league.
Perhaps luckily for the Falcons, Oliver’s only played 510 snaps over the past 2 seasons. Couple this with a defensive unit which only Falcons fans themselves would subject themselves to and there is a scenario where Oliver’s play has gone under the radar.
As a result the Falcons will hopefully have the opportunity to re-sign one of the premier players at his position to a very team friendly contract.
Risks - The obvious risk with Oliver is injury. The injury bug has already bitten more than once and you would worry about his ability to bounce back should another injury strike.
Otherwise, in Oliver you’re getting one of the better slot corners in the league who brings elite run defense for the position. Oliver’s size and physicality would also give you hope that should they choose he could have a future as a strong safety/man coverage type who could come down and matchup with TE’s (something Richie Grant hasn’t shown the ability to do).
Contractually, slot corners are extremely difficult to pin down. Perhaps the closest match would be Bengals nickle Mike Hilton who signed a 4 year $24 million contract in 2021. Hilton arguably performed better during his rookie contract than Oliver and didn’t come with any durability issues.
Predicted Contract: 3 Years $21 million ($7 AAV)
‘Makes Sense’
Olamaide Zaccheaus - A season of two halves for Zaccheaus who seemed to have legitimate chemistry with Marcus Mariota only to fail to rediscover that spark once Desmond Ridder was inserted as starter. While this may deter a new contract maybe the work done in week 18 (7 targets, 4 catches, 1 TD) will be enough to convince that Zaccheaus and Ridder have a future together.
Should Zaccheaus come back WR is still a position we should expect further investment in with Zaccheaus’ role probably best served as being WR3 (option 5 in the offense).
KhaDarel Hodge - While he did show up with the occasional catch Hodge’s return would be purely with special teams in mind. Hodge led the team in special teams tackles with 8. While not the sexiest of free agents Hodge brings solid WR depth while bringing high quality play on teams.
MyCole Pruitt - One of the surprise packages of the season Pruitt emerged as a legitimate red zone target catching more TD’s this season than Kyle Pitts has in his career (sigh).
Pruitt will never be anything other than a backup/situational type but he has shown this season he can perform that role admirably and as a result is an obvious candidate to return.
Abdullah Anderson - A late addition to the team this summer Anderson put together a decent season on a DL unit which spent all season throughly out of their depth. In all likelihood Anderson is a player who you’d like to see fill out the bottom of your rotation. Assuming this would be his role Anderson would be a solid depth piece to welcome back.
‘For the Right Price’
Lorenzo Carter - Carter signed a one year deal with the Falcons presumably seeking the opportunity to rack up stats before cashing in on a long term contract this summer.
While Carter had a solid season he probably didn’t do enough to make his resigning a no brainer. Carter’s future is further complicated by the departure of Dean Pees as any new coordinator may not see Carter as a scheme fit. Similar to Anderson, Carter is a player you’d welcome as your fourth EDGE but coming off a season where he was starting and looking for a long term deal this probably isn’t the sort of deal Carter is looking for.
Rashaan Evans - Evans was bought in this season to add stability and toughness to a position which had for lack of a better phrase, turned soft. Evans filled his role adequately racking up tackles while acting as the ‘enforcer’ in Dean Pees’ defense.
Truth be told however, while Evans did fill up the tackle box the majority of his contributions were simply not valuable. LB is one of the trickiest positions to evaluate in the league but we have seen of late the league slowly begin to adjust and de-value players such as Evans who make a lot of tackles and not much more.
Evans had the 7th highest snaps among LB’s this year and yet he ranked only 25th in ‘STOPS’ (plays which constitute a failure for the offense) per PFF. To boot Evans is essentially a non factor in coverage making him a hard sell when asked to partner with assumed starter Troy Andersen next season.
Andersen is an important piece of this puzzle, as if, as expected he’s inserted as a starter the team will be required to add a do it all LB’er, which Evans is not.
With that being said, Evans would be a welcome depth piece should he wish to come back and take on more of a veteran/leadership role with the assumption that the team prioritise further investment at the position.
Elijah Wilkinson - One of the finds of the offseason was the addition and conversion of Wilkinson into a more than adequate starting guard. Unfortunately, while Wilkinson’s play was of a more than high enough standard you would have to be worried about his inability to stay healthy.
Should Wilkinson accept another short term contract to return then it’s a no brainer, should he be looking for a longer term deal he may well get priced out of the Falcons range.
(While cap space is thankfully returning the tam needs to be wary of tying up too much future money in the OL. Jake Matthews is on a big contract, Chris Lindstrom will warrant a huge investment next year and Kaleb McGary may well be about to get paid.)
The other point to consider with Wilkinson is whether the team wishes to replace him with a truer scheme fit - ie one who thrives as a run blocker. With Jake Matthews being more of a technician at LT it would greatly help the balance of the OL if both members of the left side didn’t operate best as finesse players.
Overall, an interesting class of free agents for the Falcons. While most were brought in by design on one term contracts there are in McGary and Oliver a couple of stalwarts who define the type of player this team wants to build their culture around. Elsewhere there are a handful of ‘backup’ contributors who could all see their way back in the mix to some capacity while the trio of Carter, Evans and Wilkinson are three veterans whose future will likely be decided by the roles (and salaries) they are looking for next season.